A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
